Efficiency of Regional Public Investment: An NPV-Based Spatial Econometric Approach

This paper develops a new methodology of spatial econometric modelling for regional public investment in local economies. The approach, based on the financial concept of net present value of cash flows, can be applied in the analysis of regional public investment with long-term financial inputs and outputs. With local public revenues related to spending in the model, one can observe economies of scale of investment with possible saturation effects and a marginal investment multiplier, explaining the extent to which public investment costs translate into public revenues. The main advantage of the proposed model is to behave counter-cyclically due to accumulation over the periods and to cover multi-period investments as well as postponed effects. This paper gives an example of public investment efficiency in Polish NUTS-5 municipalities regions.     

Color research in marketing: Theoretical and technical considerations for conducting rigorous and impactful color research

Since the beginning of the 21st century, there has been a surge in interest in color research (and in sensory marketing in general). In addition to discussing emerging color research contained in this special issue, this article also provides a discussion of theoretical frameworks for understanding color and provides technical guidelines for creating color stimuli. These guidelines include a discussion of the three dimensions of color (hue, saturation, and value) and provide researchers with guidance for controlling these dimensions when creating color stimuli. Additionally, this article discusses additive (red, green, blue) versus subtractive (cyan, magenta, yellow, and key) color models, gamut, and other considerations, such as screening participants for colorblindness, that future researchers may find useful for conducting rigorous color research.     

Territorial tourism planning in Spain: from boosterism to tourism degrowth?

Abstract

Tourism saturation and unsustainability have been studied in urban political ecology. Both of these problems are inseparable from tourism planning and they have resulted in proposed solutions based on growth containment and even degrowth. These types of measures have been applied to varying degrees in mature coastal destinations in Spain since the 1990s, and they are currently being used for the country's main urban destinations due to problems generated by tourism saturation. This study examines the progressive incorporation of these measures in territorial tourism planning in Spain and it points out that the traditional emphasis on urban-tourism growth is declining and that more restrictive policies are now being implemented. This shift is illustrated through the analysis of three innovative territorial tourism planning instruments in Barcelona, the Balearic Islands and the Autonomous Region of Valencia. These ostensibly progressive processes suffer from crippling contradictions due to their inability to directly confront the capitalist accumulation model underlying the tourism growth they address. Consequently, much stronger measures capable of transcending this accumulation model in pursuit of genuine, and fair degrowth without systemic constraints are needed.     

中国汽车需求预测:基于Gompertz模型的分析

人均收入水平是影响汽车拥有率的决定性因素.本文在前人研究的基础上,运用Gomp-ertz模型研究汽车拥有率和人均收入之间的非线性关系.本文选取的研究对象既包括当今的发达国家,又包括众多发展中国家,尤其是亚洲的欠发达国家.通过对各国的时间序列数据和多国的横截面数据做回归,并对汽车拥有率及其收入弹性做国际比较,研究发现Gompertz方程能够很好地解释各国汽车拥有率发展共有趋势:在一国经济发展过程中,汽车拥有率先加速增长,在经历了一个拐点后,减速增长,最后无限趋近于共有的餍足点,本文设为0.62;而收入弹性呈先上升,在达到最大值后下降的状态.本文重点分析了近年来中国的汽车拥有率问题,并预测出中国的汽车拥有率拐点在人均GDP YIP=12 000,汽车拥有率VIp=0.2281上,假定中国人均GDP的增长速度在3%-7%的范围内,这个拐点将发生在2015-2042年之间,那时的汽车总量将大于259 996 496辆.此外,收入分配不均对中国的汽车拥有率有着重要的影响.     

物流配送网络节点服务客户饱和度模型构建

对于第三方物流企业而言,物流服务的质量与其构建的物流服务网络密不可分。由于配送中心服务质量的信息会在客户网络之间进行传播,良好的服务口碑能够提高客户对企业提供的物流配送服务的认同度,从而吸引更多客户选择该企业。但当整个网络中的客户达到一定规模时,物流企业需要扩大自己的物流实体网络,即需要新建配送中心以满足客户要求。物流配送网络配送节点服务客户的饱和度受到服务质量传播率、网络规模及网络类型的影响,随着传播率和网络节点平均度数的增加,配送节点服务客户的饱和度也会增加。     

Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic

We have been publishing real-time forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) since mid-March 2020 (published at www.doornik.com/COVID-19). These forecasts are short-term statistical extrapolations of past and current data. They assume that the underlying trend is informative regarding short-term developments but without requiring other assumptions about how the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is spreading, or whether preventative policies are effective. Thus, they are complementary to the forecasts obtained from epidemiological models.The forecasts are based on extracting trends from windows of data using machine learning and then computing the forecasts by applying some constraints to the flexible extracted trend. These methods have been applied previously to various other time series data and they performed well. They have also proved effective in the COVID-19 setting where they provided better forecasts than some epidemiological models in the earlier stages of the pandemic.     

Fifty shades of food: The influence of package color saturation on health and taste in consumer judgments

When evaluating food products, consumers rely on visual cues on packages to infer their healthiness and tastiness. We assumed that color, specifically color saturation, is one such cue, similarly relevant for both healthiness and tastiness inferences. We conducted three studies in which we manipulated the color of pictures of product packages. Participants viewed pictures from the category of snacks (Study 1a) and drinks (Studies 1b and 2), available at a supermarket's online store and rated each product on the dimensions of healthiness and tastiness. In two studies, we showed one group of participants product pictures only as grayscale images, whereas another group viewed the pictures in full color. In a third study, we showed participants product pictures once with increased and once with decreased color saturation. We consistently found a positive correlation between healthiness and tastiness. Presenting pictures of products as grayscale images weakened the healthy-tasty correlation. Products with increased compared with decreased color saturation were rated as both healthier and tastier, mediated by the products' perceived freshness.     

水合物资源量影响因素分析

"体积法"是计算水合物资源量的重要方法,利用体积法来计算水合物的资源量,主要受到水合物的分布面积、孔隙度、饱和度等因素的影响,而如何来确定这些重要的参数,将直接影响水合物资源量评估的可靠性。本文将重点介绍介绍这些参数的分析方法。     

基于Relly法则与加权Voronoi图的连锁超市商圈分析

商圈分析是一项考虑较多要素的复杂工作,能够为零售连锁超市网点选址和合理配送提供依据,具有很强的现实意义。本文概述商圈分析的主要因子和相关模型,考虑距离和商店规模因子,用Relly法则和加权Voronoi 图相结合的方法,在mapinfoGIS平台下,实现对上海某连锁超市网点商圈的划分,结果比单纯Voronoi图更合理。本文进一步考虑人口分布的因子,计算了各网点商圈的零售饱和度,初步得到一些有意义的结论。